Internal working document — Joe & Naomi only — do not send to Rob or any customer

Volume Profit Forecast

What wholesale looks like at 60 → 200 tubs/week · rebuilt 20 Aug 2026 on your cost basis, from the confirmed floor costs in INTERNAL-wholesale-cost-margin-review.html (4 Aug 2026).
Base = base recipe + flavor ingredients + tub. Labor and overhead are period costs below, not baked into the base.

How contribution is defined here

Base cost per tub = base recipe ($14.74/batch dairy) + flavor-specific ingredients, divided by batch yield, + $7.00 tub.
Contribution per tub = wholesale price − base cost. That is the cash each tub leaves behind to pay for labor, overhead, and profit — in that order.

Labor has not vanished — it moved. It is now its own monthly line in the forecast rather than a per-tub deduction, because at your scale labor behaves like a period cost (you and Naomi churning) rather than a true per-unit outflow. The net result is identical either way; this version just shows you the two levers separately.

Across the 28 costed flavors, contribution ranges $23.08 (Caramel / Salted Caramel, priced at 25%) to $41.91 (Heath Bar, 40%). Average is $32.22. Scenarios below use $24 conservative · $32 blended · $39 premium.

As a percentage, the blended margin on base is 47.6% — against 36.8% on full cost once labor is added back. The 40% / 30% / 25% figures in the 4 Aug review are the full-cost numbers; both appear in the flavor table below so nothing gets read on the wrong basis.

Monthly overhead (TBD)

Contribution / tub

Labor $/hr

Batches / hr

Avg price / tub

Forecast — contribution, then labor, then overhead

Tubs / week	Batches / wk	Prod hrs / wk	People	Revenue / mo	Contribution / mo	− Labor / mo	− Overhead / mo	Net / mo	Net / year

Revenue uses the Avg price / tub box above, defaulted to $67.76 — the true average across the 28 costed flavors. Rob’s full 43-flavor sheet averages $67.34 once the 11 provisional flavors at $63.50 and the 4 fruit flavors at $75.00 are included; use that instead if you expect him to order across the whole list. Batches use the default 1.5 batches/tub (0.6667 yield). Labor = batches × (wage ÷ batches-per-hr). People = production hours ÷ 35 productive hrs/week. Labor appears once, in its own column — it is not inside contribution.

Same grid, all three mix scenarios (net per month, after labor and overhead)

Tubs / week	Conservative — $24/tub	Blended — $32/tub	Premium — $39/tub	Read

Break-even

The capacity problem — read this before believing any row above

Every volume on this page is 2–8× what the kitchen currently does. The CQP proposal states current capacity as 25–35 tubs/week at today's staffing. This forecast starts at 60.

60–80 tubs/wk — 22.5–30 production hrs/week. Roughly one dedicated part-time person on top of retail. Plausible without new equipment.
100–120 tubs/wk — 37.5–45 hrs/week. That is a full-time production role. Freezer hold likely binds before labor does.
150–200 tubs/wk — 56–75 hrs/week, two people, and almost certainly a second batch freezer plus real walk-in capacity. A different business with a capital plan, not a bigger version of today.

Splitting labor out makes this sharper, not softer: the labor column is the staffing bill for those hours. If those hours do not exist, neither does the row.

Full cost, revenue and margin — all 28 costed flavors

Flavor	Ingredients	= Base ingr + $7 tub	Labor	= Full cost	Revenue price / tub	Margin on base	Margin on full	Contribution	Net after labor

Two margin bases, deliberately shown side by side. Margin on base is what this page runs on — price vs. ingredients + tub, averaging 47.6%. Margin on full is the original target the prices were actually set from (the 40% / 30% / 25% calls in the 4 Aug review), which included labor — averaging 36.8%. Neither is wrong; they answer different questions. Labor and both margins recalculate live from the Labor $/hr and Batches / hr boxes above.

The 15 flavors on Rob’s sheet with no cost data

These are quoted to Rob but have never been costed, so they carry no margin and no contribution — they are excluded from every average on this page. The last three columns are a reverse calculation: the most the base (ingredients + tub) could cost and still hit each margin. If real costing lands above those numbers, the flavor is underpriced to Rob.

Flavor	Quoted to Rob	Actual cost	Max base for 40%	Max base for 30%	Max base for 25%

For scale: the average costed base is $35.53. Nine of the eleven $63.50 flavors would need to come in under $38.10 to hold 40% — tight but plausible. Anything nut-heavy, cheesecake-based or real-fruit (Pistachio, the three cheesecakes, Mango) will likely land well above that, the same way Butter Pecan and Strawberry did.

Where this data comes from — and the live calculator

Recipe Engine v3 — mimis-recipe-engine.pages.dev
That is the live per-recipe cost calculator. It already models the same four components separately — ingPerTub, pkgPerTub, laborPerTub, overheadPerTub — so this page's basis maps onto it directly. Add to Home Screen on your phone for full-screen use.

Two things still unentered in the app: Settings → Labour (minutes/batch, people, wage) and Settings → Overhead (rent, utilities, insurance, tubs/month). Until those are in, the app shows ingredients + packaging only — which is exactly the base defined on this page — and it will refuse to give a margin verdict rather than guess.
Source: _docs/wholesale-program/cost-engine/engine.js · the older v2 mirror at mimis-internal-wholesale.pages.dev/cost-engine/ is stale.

What would change these numbers

Overhead is still TBD — rent, utilities, insurance, equipment payments per month. Until that is real, the Net columns are arithmetic, not a forecast. Everything left of them is built on confirmed costs.
Bulk pricing is unmodeled upside. Every ingredient and the $7.00 tub is priced at today's small-order rates. At 150–200 tubs/week you would likely buy dairy, sugar and tubs materially cheaper — which lifts contribution directly, since both sit inside the base. Get a quote before committing to a volume tier.
Flagged recipe assumptions still ride underneath — Mint Oreo pricing, Espresso container usage, Butterfinger/Heath bags-per-batch, and the cups-to-ounces conversions on chips and M&Ms. Individually small, collectively a dollar or two per tub of blended contribution.
Yields are measured for exactly three flavors (Vanilla 0.8333, Lemon Cookie 0.75, Happy Ice 1.0); the rest use the 0.6667 default. A wrong yield moves base cost and production hours and labor — still the highest-leverage measurement left undone.
The 11 provisional flavors at $63.50 are excluded from every average here. No cost data, so including them would fabricate contribution.
Seasonality is not modeled. A flat 52-week run rate overstates a year with a real winter in it.

Rebuilt 20 Aug 2026 on the base = ingredients + tub definition, from INTERNAL-wholesale-cost-margin-review.html (4 Aug 2026) — 28 costed flavors, floor costs confirmed. Labor and overhead entered live above, not stored. This document is not deployed anywhere — local file only.